Royalty Returns (Weekend Preview)

G1 Haskell

Rachel Alexandra heads the lineup for the Haskell, which will feature four of the top ten 3yo’s in the country. (Rachel, Munnings, Summer Bird and Papa Clem) The question are…

1. Can Rachel avoid a speed duel
2. Can Summer Bird prove he is not a one hit wonder on a speed-favoring track?
3. Can Munnings carry his speed over a distance of ground?
4. Can Papa Clem put his abysmal last race behind him?

I like Rachel to win and decisively. Munnings might be the next great horse but there is a lot of class in this race to be trying something for the first time. The track should aid him in staying the trip, but I don’t think he’ll have enough fight late to turn back the leading lady.

Summer Bird will make a nice run late, but will run out of ground to finish second.

G2 West Virginia Derby

This is a two-horse duel between Kentucky Derby hero Mine That Bird and speedster Big Drama.

The connections of Birdie chose this race because of the lucrative purse and the fact that the track generally doesn’t favor speed the way Monmouth does. The plan might have backfired as the “other” Birdie (Summer Bird) drew into a race loaded with pace to make a run at, while Mine That Bird faces a small field with the primary speed being one of the most dynamic horses in the division.

I like Big Drama to win and win big. He is one of the most versatile and brilliant horses in the division and unless he has unforeseen trip issues he should run off with the race heading into the stretch. Mine That Bird is a consistent, honest, horse; but he’s about to run into a buzz saw. He’ll get no trip issues in such a small field, but making one deep run in a small field sounds disastrous. As disastrous as running second in a $750,000 race could be!

Have a good weekend everyone!

Saratoga Day 4&5

G1 Diana Stakes

There is no way I’d go against Forever Together in this field. She is a special horse and towers over her rivals in class. She ran second last out, but that was at a mile, a distance she is not best suited for. At 9 furlongs her closing kick will have a bit more punch. Note the electric bullet work leading to this race. The big dog is ready to eat.

The only other alternative for a price or upset is Criticism. Look for her to lead them around the track and steal the race is the favorite falters.

G2 Jim Dandy

This is really a rather stale edition of the Jim Dandy. Usually the race is dominated by one or two standouts, but this year we get a small seven-horse field filled with second tier types.

I’d be all over Saratoga Sinner if not for the 182 day layoff. With any type of useful prep he’d be the play against this group. I actually find myself leaning towards him anyway, but I am tempering my enthusiasm because the field can’t be that bad… can it?

Charitable Man is the “name” in the field. He of course ran a dull 4th as the wise guy horse in the G1 Belmont. I’ve never been a big fan of the horse. He does loom large in this field on ability, but the fact that he has not faired well around two turns in his career is troublesome.

Kensei is swift and appears to be improving with additional ground, but this will be his first start around two turns.

I’m leaning toward Warriors Reward for this race. There is a lot of speed and this horse will be closing in to it. He’ll need to step up slightly speed wise, but this is not a consistent field he is facing and the distance should embellish him and his style.

I’ll take Warriors Reward for the win and Saratoga Sinner as the longshot-upset special. (He’s not really a long shot in the purest sense of the word, but he is the fifth choice on the morning line in a field of seven)

G2 Fourstardave

This is a very interesting race and I think it will have several attractive betting propositions. Kip Deville’s presence in the field is great news for those looking to get a decent price on some of the other contenders. Kippy has certainly done more with his career than any in this field and if he can regain past glory he will loom large. With that said the old man hasn’t looked particularly great recently and he certainly is not a horse you can bank on. I’ll be laying against him confidently, though it would not bother me to see this guy perform to his ability.

For me the race comes down to Cowboy Cal and Cosmonaut. I’m selecting Cowboy Cal in part because I have a soft spot for the horse and also because the turn back in distance will be right up his alley. He’s never lost at this distance and I think he’s ready for another big performance. Cosmonaut has not trained that well leading to this and that’s a concern.

I’ll take Cowboy Cal for the win, and Justenuffhumor for the mid-priced upset choice. He’s won four consecutive races and has trained well coming to this race. He’ll get a massive class test here, but you have to step up at some point. Any improvement by him makes him a real danger. His race line may get him over bet though I’m afraid. At 6-1 or thereabouts though, fire away.

G1 Go For Wand

This race has little appeal from a wagering standpoint unless on the back end of multi-race wagers. This race is a chalk eating weasels delight.

The Godolphin entry looms large with Seventh Street and Cocoa Beach. Both have question marks but the play against for those inclined is the 9-5 Miss Isella. Seventh Street is coming in off a one length defeat in G1 company. Cocoa Beach is one of the best fillies in the land that is coming in off an unexplainably horrid performance. She cant be that bad, that quick.

Miss Isella is coming in off two solid scores in G2 company. She has never really run a bad race in her career on dirt and she has certainly picked it up from a speed perspective of late.

For selection purposes I’ll go with Miss Isella because she’ll be 2-1 rather than the entries 4-5 and if Cocoa Beach is not herself, she is probably the class of the field. Spritely is the upset play. She’ll look to wire the field in her first route.

Backtalk Scores In G2 Sanford

The race looked chalky going in and in the end the favorite did his part. Backtalk looked ripe for defeat with a sixteenth to go, but he called on his class late to dig in and get up to score in the prestigious event.

The sad thing is my "price" and cover in a light exacta, Nacho Friend, ran about as green as possible, preventing himself from really having a shot to get up late. On ability, he was as good as anyone in the race.

Where will the field go from here? Nacho Friend and Bulls and Bears have ability and will make a name for themselves. Backtalk is a tough, honest horse, but I think he lacks a bit in the brilliance department and am not sure how far heart and desire will carry him once he starts running into experienced, swift opposition. He is a young 2yo with room to grown though, so you never know.

For the sake of embarrassing myself I will keep a running tally of performance of my selections after each race. My "long-shots" are not necessarily selections or horses I would use but to be thorough I'll keep an eye on their performance as well. To keep tabs on the ROI, each selection will be based on a hypothetical $2 across the board wager.

Rail Tout Saratoga 2009 Selections
(2)1-1-0
Win% - 50%
ITM% - 100%
Wagered: $12
Winnings: $18.70
Profit: $6.70


Rail Tout Saratoga 2009 Long Shots
(2)0-0-0
Win%: 0%
ITM%: 0%
Wagered: $12
Winnings: $0
Losses: -$12

G2 Lake George (Saratoga Day 3)

Fairly interesting affair for 3yo fillies on the lawn.

I've keyed on the G3 Boiling Springs at Monmouth, which has two of the short prices in the race, Mary's Follies and Kiawah Cat. Mary's Follies held off a late rally by Kiawah to prevail in that race, but I like Kiawah to turn the tables here. Kiawah is an emerging type from the Darley stable that looks poised to fire her best shot third off the shelf. She's trained very well at Saratoga and you have to figure the Darley barn will wake up at some point.

Mary's Follies is too tough and consistent to omit underneath but the primary threat for me is Consequence. McGaughey's got a useful one here who just might have turned the corner.

Euro alert! Missy Keller has come stateside for this event off a 4th place finish in a minor affair at the Curragh. She might be the only value in the race and worth fattening the exotics if the short turn around hasn't hindered her already iffy form.

Hot Dixie Chick Takes Schuylerville

Impressive run by the winner, though the track conditions had to play a part. The race unfolded fairly to form, though I had hoped Hot Dixie Chick would get pinned to the rail without seeing the light of day.

Wild Without Wine laid an egg missing the break, but she was putting in a decent run late before Decelerator lugged out and made her check. She likely finishes third without the interference.

My choice Beautician ran to form, though I think it was a tall task to overcome Hot Dixie Chick on the lead in the slop.

Click Here For Race Video

BTW, I will do my best to embed videos for all of these races here, though naturally some will not be hosted on youtube or the like. If I find the videos while the post is still on the main page I will update it, so make sure to check back.

G2 Sanford (Saratoga Day 2)

I can tell you viewing the PP’s for this race wasn’t that exciting. The prestigious sprint for 2yo colts looks chalky. Unless you’ve got a hunch or some inside information, it looks like a better race to watch than wager.

Backtalk looks legit at 2-1. The son of Smarty Jones has won his first two starts, his last being the G3 Bashford Manor at Churchill. Those electing to play against him will probably point to the regression in speed figure in his second start, but it looks to me like he was very eligible for the bounce off his stellar maiden score. (Which could also be a concern for the co-choices Bulls and Bears and Enumerate) He’s put in some useful works leading to this and I like the fact that he’s won over the 6f while showing some tactical speed and an ability to rate. No lock, but he looks tough.

Bulls and Bears will get some play after a swift first out win. He’s certainly eligible for a big score here, especially if he improves off that performance, but I’m not sold on his price (7-2) based on that one race. He’s a boom or bust play since he is a major bounce candidate.

Enumerate is really in the same boat as Bulls and Bears. Big maiden score, huge speed figure… short price. (3-1) This horse could be anything. I’d be slightly more comfortable with Bulls and Bears since he’s worked a little better leading up to this, probably beat a bit better at Belmont and has shown he can relax early and make one run. This of course means Enumerate is the play!

The second tier choices, Nacho Friend and Interactif, are also first out winners. The only difference between them and the chalk is speed figures. Nacho Friend becomes a play with the prospect of an off track. He might also be the one long shot worth a punt if you think he is not just a “mud” wonder. Interactif had a nice score in his debut and looks primed to run to his ability after his bullet workout leading to the race. That work is the angle for him.

Ill use Backtalk, Bulls and Bears, and Nacho Friend in some LIGHT exotic wagering, for action purposes only. There are bigger and better races to worry about on the weekend.

The Spa Opens (G3 Schurylerville)

Saratoga is my favorite meet of the year. It not only attracts the very best the sport has to offer, but now with Keeneland and Delmar being run over synthetic tracks it has the distinction of being the only boutique meet run on a conventional dirt surface.

Of course Saratoga has a ton of big races for 3yo’s and up but it also has some of the best 2yo races in the game. If you want to start looking for the next big thing, Saratoga often will showcase them.

My plan for the meet is to preview and highlight each graded stakes for the meet. I’ll make the odd pick or two and host the replays here for those that missed them.

G3 Schurylerville $100,000 (Wed, Race 9)

This has a very nice, big field. (Typical for Saratoga) You can make a case for about half the field but my interest is focused on Decelerator, Beautician and Wild Without Wine.

Decelerator has won both of her starts and both in good company. She broke her maiden over the impressive Hot Dixie Chick (in this field) and won an impressive duel in the G3 Debutante at Churchill. Lukas has won this race a time or two (seven times to be exact) and she will be closing hard into the stretch.

Beautician was a very impressive maiden winner at Churchill over the useful Sassy Image (also in the field). She showed a lot of professionalism in the race and closed willingly after rating. The corresponding speed figure is the second highest of the field. She has worked brilliantly since.

Wild Without Wine is the long shot play. For those not obsessed with 2yo racing and didn’t happen to catch her debut at Pimlico, you’d be deceived by her DRF racing line. Her line states, “green, passed faders” and Brian Mulligan of the Form states “nothing like blinkers and experience to wake a horse up…not exactly flattered by debut winner”. They didn’t see the race either I suspect. WWW got pinched at the break and then had a horse to her inside spill the jock, ushering her 15+ lengths back at the break in her debut. After regaining her composure she slowly got into the bit and improved ground willingly to finish a good third. The second place finisher did come back to break her maiden next out. In her maiden score she broke sharp and demolished a group of maidens at Deleware by over ten lengths. She has legit early speed and she should be rateable if need be.

I like Beautician over Wild Without Wine, with Decelerator up for third. The key will be Hot Dixie Chick from the rail. I don’t like uncertainty with 2yo races and this filly has never come close to breaking from the rail. She has not had to rate yet and if she has to be reserved or is impeded early you have to wonder how effective she’ll be. She has the speed to overcome the post, but I’m playing with the idea she will break off a step or run into some trouble. That will leave Wild Without Win on the lead and she should be able to hold respectably late without Dixie pressuring her early. (Of course its possible both Dixie and Wine break sharp and burn each other out, making Decelerator and Beautician even better plays) Beautician and Decelerator will make mid-late moves and I favor Beautician to be able to get the better trip.

*note, Albarado chose Hot Dixie Chick over Beautician for this race