Tuesday, July 28, 2009

The Spa Opens (G3 Schurylerville)

Saratoga is my favorite meet of the year. It not only attracts the very best the sport has to offer, but now with Keeneland and Delmar being run over synthetic tracks it has the distinction of being the only boutique meet run on a conventional dirt surface.

Of course Saratoga has a ton of big races for 3yo’s and up but it also has some of the best 2yo races in the game. If you want to start looking for the next big thing, Saratoga often will showcase them.

My plan for the meet is to preview and highlight each graded stakes for the meet. I’ll make the odd pick or two and host the replays here for those that missed them.

G3 Schurylerville $100,000 (Wed, Race 9)

This has a very nice, big field. (Typical for Saratoga) You can make a case for about half the field but my interest is focused on Decelerator, Beautician and Wild Without Wine.

Decelerator has won both of her starts and both in good company. She broke her maiden over the impressive Hot Dixie Chick (in this field) and won an impressive duel in the G3 Debutante at Churchill. Lukas has won this race a time or two (seven times to be exact) and she will be closing hard into the stretch.

Beautician was a very impressive maiden winner at Churchill over the useful Sassy Image (also in the field). She showed a lot of professionalism in the race and closed willingly after rating. The corresponding speed figure is the second highest of the field. She has worked brilliantly since.

Wild Without Wine
is the long shot play. For those not obsessed with 2yo racing and didn’t happen to catch her debut at Pimlico, you’d be deceived by her DRF racing line. Her line states, “green, passed faders” and Brian Mulligan of the Form states “nothing like blinkers and experience to wake a horse up…not exactly flattered by debut winner”. They didn’t see the race either I suspect. WWW got pinched at the break and then had a horse to her inside spill the jock, ushering her 15+ lengths back at the break in her debut. After regaining her composure she slowly got into the bit and improved ground willingly to finish a good third. The second place finisher did come back to break her maiden next out. In her maiden score she broke sharp and demolished a group of maidens at Deleware by over ten lengths. She has legit early speed and she should be rateable if need be.

I like Beautician over Wild Without Wine, with Decelerator up for third. The key will be Hot Dixie Chick from the rail. I don’t like uncertainty with 2yo races and this filly has never come close to breaking from the rail. She has not had to rate yet and if she has to be reserved or is impeded early you have to wonder how effective she’ll be. She has the speed to overcome the post, but I’m playing with the idea she will break off a step or run into some trouble. That will leave Wild Without Win on the lead and she should be able to hold respectably late without Dixie pressuring her early. (Of course its possible both Dixie and Wine break sharp and burn each other out, making Decelerator and Beautician even better plays) Beautician and Decelerator will make mid-late moves and I favor Beautician to be able to get the better trip.

*note, Albarado chose Hot Dixie Chick over Beautician for this race


The_Knight_Sky said...

Gary says:

...but now with Keeneland and Delmar being run over synthetic tracks it has the distinction of being the only boutique meet run on a conventional dirt surface.


Nick Zito says:

Thank God for that ! :D

It should be a stellar meet.
Rachel or no Rachel.

Gary said...

Saratoga has always been a personal fave, but being the only "super" meet on dirt now, has me over the moon for the opener.

Hope you cash a few tickets TKS.

Thanks for the add on your blog, I'll return the favor.