Thursday, November 5, 2009

Breeders Cup Picks (Friday)

For a complete look at the fields including grades for each participant make sure to check out my BC Grades Spreadhseet below…

BC Grades w/ Odds Analysis

Ladies Classic

It’s little surprise for those following my countdown that I’m going with Careless Jewell. I think she is the most brilliant horse in the field and provides the least amount of questions. There are a lot of intriguing horses in the field, but I’m not getting cute here and simply going with the horse I think is the best of the lot. Music Note is fantastic horse and not to be underestimated, but I’m not convinced synthetics don’t blunt her brilliance to some degree, despite her third place finish here last year. A horse that really interests me is Lethal Heat. She hasn’t won a race in 09, but she has hit the board in all of those races and in two meetings with Zenyatta has only lost by a combined 2 lengths. She is as consistent as they come and at 20-1 she provides some fantastic value in an otherwise chalky affair. I’ll be using her on every ticket underneath.

Filly & Mare Turf

If I can get the morning line of 4-1 on Midday I’ll be quite pleased. Not only has she competed at a higher level than any other horse in the field this year, but she also doesnt need to drastically improve, but rather run back to several other efforts. Her Nassau victory was nothing short of superb and wins this comfortably if she replicates it. Forever Together is no afterthought and some people have overlooked the fact that her only losses since her dominant score here last year were in mile races. She needs more ground and her record shows that, bearing no losses beyond 8f in 2009. She loves the distance and I’m sure she will fire a big race. I cannot put her above Midday though because she clearly looks to have lost a step this year. She was running faster leading to this in '09 and though the distance is ideal, she will have to pull one out of the hat to top Midday if the European fires. A lot of people are throwing out Magical Fantasy and I think its absurd. Sure she hasn’t faced world class fields and is not putting up high Beyers, but there is something to be said for dominating the host track. She is clearly not to be considered an equal to the above, but its foolish to think this filly cannot round out the trifecta over the likes of Maram or Visit.

Juvenile Fillies

The race boils down to the Oak Leaf duo and Beautician for me. In races that appear on paper to be wide open, I tend to go back to horses that have acted over the track and distance and as a result I cannot overlook Blind Luck and Always a Princess. I waiver on who to prefer of the two. Blind Luck dominated the Oak Leaf and Always A Princess stepped up and ran huge in her second start. Princess looks like the type that could improve significantly with that experience behind her. I was somewhat disappointed with the morning line for Beautician. Not because it isn’t logical, it is, but because I was hoping for 10-1. I’m optimistic she will get to that price and if so, I will swing for the fences with her. Her last race was a troubled toss-out. Before that she ran a very good race against the fantastic Hot Dixie Chick. She looked poised to break out before never getting a chance at Keeneland. I think she could be sitting on a huge breakout effort and if the price is right, I’ll be backing her to do just that.

Filly and Mare Sprint

Chalk City. There is not a lot to discuss here as Ventura and Informed Decision are the dominant fillies and their main competition should be against each other. (No disrespect to the field) Informed Decision has a victory over Ventura, but I’m siding with Ventura here. For one, Ventura is without a doubt in the best form of her career. Her historic score in the Woodbine Mile was special and hints that she is still as dominant as ever. Couple that with her tour de force in this event last year and I’ll take her to turn the tide with Informed Decision. I’m a big Sara Louise fan, but I’m thoroughly perplexed as to how shell act over synthetics. As a result it’s a tossup between her and Seventh Street as to who I’ll favor to round out the Chalk Eating Weasel Trifecta.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

I look for the Europeans to dominate here and I am over the moon that Junia Tepzia is 8-1. She has manhandled the fields in her first two starts and got a monster rating in the last. She was freshened after her maiden score and comes into this race primed and ready. I’m extremely optimistic that she has more upside here than anyone else and at 8-1 she might be the best value on the card. Lillie Langtry is the most proven horse in the field, has the biggest win of the field and on paper looks like a near shoe-in. I suspect she will make her presence felt, but the only concern I have with her is she seems to be tailing off ever so slightly. House of Grace is America’s best chance and I think she will run very well here. She’s proven a route of ground and I think she is going to be much more effective on turf than the synth, which she won over last out on pure class and desire.


Mastery is being called the lock of the day by many. Hard to argue with that when you have a freshened G1 winning European coming over to face American horses that are largely considered afterthoughts at this distance. His entire 09 campaign has been superb and he even has a good effort over an all-weather track. His chief competition will once again be Father Time. Father Time has chased Mastery around twice in his career and while never being embarrassed, he’s never really threatened him. With that said, if he can run back to his King Edwards effort, he could logically make a go of it. Personally I’ll be rooting for Cloudy’s Night. The old warrior(9yo) has come back from a one year absence and promptly reeled off two impressive score in graded stakes company. He’s a stayer through and through and though he might not be as dynamic as his Euro counterparts, he can make up for it in heart and desire if it turns into a dog fight. I hope the old man brings it one last time!

Railtout Breeders Cup Schedule

Friday: Picks for Saturday
Saturday: Live Blog
Sunday: Recap

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