Wednesday, July 29, 2009

G2 Sanford (Saratoga Day 2)

I can tell you viewing the PP’s for this race wasn’t that exciting. The prestigious sprint for 2yo colts looks chalky. Unless you’ve got a hunch or some inside information, it looks like a better race to watch than wager.

Backtalk looks legit at 2-1. The son of Smarty Jones has won his first two starts, his last being the G3 Bashford Manor at Churchill. Those electing to play against him will probably point to the regression in speed figure in his second start, but it looks to me like he was very eligible for the bounce off his stellar maiden score. (Which could also be a concern for the co-choices Bulls and Bears and Enumerate) He’s put in some useful works leading to this and I like the fact that he’s won over the 6f while showing some tactical speed and an ability to rate. No lock, but he looks tough.

Bulls and Bears will get some play after a swift first out win. He’s certainly eligible for a big score here, especially if he improves off that performance, but I’m not sold on his price (7-2) based on that one race. He’s a boom or bust play since he is a major bounce candidate.

is really in the same boat as Bulls and Bears. Big maiden score, huge speed figure… short price. (3-1) This horse could be anything. I’d be slightly more comfortable with Bulls and Bears since he’s worked a little better leading up to this, probably beat a bit better at Belmont and has shown he can relax early and make one run. This of course means Enumerate is the play!

The second tier choices, Nacho Friend and Interactif, are also first out winners. The only difference between them and the chalk is speed figures. Nacho Friend becomes a play with the prospect of an off track. He might also be the one long shot worth a punt if you think he is not just a “mud” wonder. Interactif had a nice score in his debut and looks primed to run to his ability after his bullet workout leading to the race. That work is the angle for him.

Ill use Backtalk, Bulls and Bears, and Nacho Friend in some LIGHT exotic wagering, for action purposes only. There are bigger and better races to worry about on the weekend.


The_Knight_Sky said...

Nacho Friend hails from George and Lori Hall of Atomic Rain fame.

"Nacho" has shown he can rate off the pace and his wet track prowess will come in handy today. Even though it should be a "drying out" track for most of the day.

I'd be surprised to see the potent Breen/Bravo connections go off as high as 10/1. If he does,that would make him a great vertical key horse at that price.

Monmouth Park 2 year olds should never be underestimated. A horse named Holy Bull won first time out just like this Nacho Friend did. He could make some noise the way Atomic Rain with his peers.

Gary said...

I'm throwing a lob Nacho's direction and using him in some exacta action. He's the value play for sure.

The_Knight_Sky said...

He rated well at the rail, and at the quarter pole needed a bit of racing room. Didn't quite get it at the right time. The lack of momentum cost him a top 3 placing.

Bulls and Bears was all over the place from the break and through the stretch. I've got him tabbed in StableMail if he goes 6 1/2 of 7 panels next month.