Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Kentucky Derby Top 10

1. Old Fashioned
2. I Want Revenge (New)
3. Imperial Council (2)
4. Pioneerof The Nile (3)
5. Hello Broadway (4)
6. Fresian Fire (5)
7. The Pamplemousse (6)
8. General Quarters (7)
9. Flying Pegasus (8)
10. Desert Party

Also Eligible: Terrain, Dunkirk, Theregoesjojo, Patena, Quality Road, Giant Oak

Two big races have shaken up the top 10.

I Want Revenge ran the finest prep of the year in the G3 Gotham last weekend, receiving a Beyer of 113 for the effort. The power of that display alone will make him a threat in the Derby unless he drastically regresses in the Wood Memorial. I opted not to move him directly to the top of the list out of respect for Old Fashioned and the fact that he runs this weekend in the G3 Rebel. He deserves a chance to respond.

Some have dismissed Imperial Council after his runner up finish in the Gotham, but I think it was the type of race he can build on. It was his first start around two turns and his first in stakes company, so a win was not a must. He lost touch with the race early, but finished up strong and there is no reason to back off him now, as improvement in the Wood Memorial is likely. (The question being whether that improvement is good enough) Shug is also less inclined than most to prime a horse too soon. He isn't going to crank the horse up to get in the Derby, he's going to train with winning it in mind.

Stardom Bound was dropped from the top ten after a life and death win in the S.A Oaks. As I discussed earlier I do not think the effort was anywhere near as disappointing as some have made it out to be. (winning a G1 race by a nose, damn the luck!) I think she should still run in the S.A Derby, but if the connections are leaning against it, she cannot remain in the list. I will place her back on the Also Eligible list if her connections decide to roll the dice in the S.A Derby.

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