Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Kentucky Derby Top 10

1. Old Fashioned
2. Imperial Council
3. Pioneerof The Nile
4. Hello Broadway
5. Fresian Fire
6. The Pamplemousse (New)
7. General Quarters (8)
8. Flying Pegasus (9)
9. Stardom Bound (10)
10. Desert Party (New)

Also Eligible: Terrain, Dunkirk, I Want Revenge, Theregoesjojo, Patena, Quality Road

Lots of movement this week. The weekend didn't look to have a real Derby impact going in, but my how things can change in a hurry.

Midshipman was injured in Dubai and is sidelined until the summer. So far two of the esteemed Dubai trio of Vineyard Haven, Midshipman and Desert Party have had a rough go of it overseas. I'm a glutton for punishment though and at the last moment I decided to include Desert Party into the list after a week of serious defections. The colt has talent, will be fit but not damaged goods come May and is proven on dirt. The UAE Derby will be crucial for him.

I wavered considerably on who to bring into the list for that last spot and some will consider it interesting that I opted for a Dubai based horse over Quality Road or Dunkirk, the current buzz horses.

I'm taking a firm stance against Quality Road. He lacks sufficient experience and will only get one prep around two turns. His gaudy Beyer of 113 would have made him a Derby favorite if it was around two turns, but in a glorified sprint, against other glorified sprinters, its less relevant. Obviously the horse has talent and a bright future, but I'm taking a serious wait and see approach with him. He looks like a miler that will be massively over bet in his two turn debut.

The Pamplemousse went flying around the Santa Anita oval on Saturday and went flying onto my list in the process. I considered him a Quality Road type, but the dominance he showed around two turns, on a course that punishes front runners, was very impressive. If his ability is further embellished on dirt (as it should) he could be a major force. He has a certain boom or bust feel to him, but after that performance he'll get the benefit of the doubt until the Santa Anita Derby.

Capt. Candyman Can tumbled off the list after a stale effort in the Fountain of Youth. He was already behind the gun with only one two turn prep on his plate and he had to show something here that would underline his ability to run on further. He was light years behind Quality Road, despite the fact that he had a significantly less taxing trip. I cant see him doing anything other than shortening up in the near future.

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