Friday, March 27, 2009

Florida Derby

As you'll notice I did not post a new Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week. I figured it would be a waste of bandwidth to re-post an identical list as nothing transpired over the previous weekend that would affect the list.

The winners of the Turfway Poly-Preps haven't done enough to warrant real consideration to this point.

The Florida Derby headlines this weekends action. The run for the roses really heats up now as these are the final races before the big dance. Not only do horses need to be improving in these races but a lot of drama surrounds qualifying in the first place.

Dunkrik, considered a wonder horse by many, will not even get into the Derby without a win. Talk about pressure. A good fast closing second and this horse is heading to the Belmont.

Quality Road probably gets in with at least a third place finish, but Theregoesjojo can afford no worse a finish than second and even that might not cut it.

Realistically when all is said and done only one, maybe two, of these horses will be in the Derby come May.

So who will it be? Ive basically dismissed Quality Road from the outset. Im prepared to eat my shoe on him but I don't see this horse winning the Kentucky Derby. Can he win the Florida Derby? Possibly. Will he? I doubt it. I suspect he'll be running on fumes late in the Florida Derby and will be all out to finish third.

Theregoesjojo is an interesting horse. He comes running late and is for the first time this year really primed for a peak effort. He'll make a move late to dust everyone but....

Dunkirk. I hate picking this horse on several levels. One, I dislike the choice because he is all the rage after an allowance win. I also despise his trainers tactic of entering a rabbit. (Will save that discussion for another day) What I do like about him here is simple, he is proven around two turns over this course. Whereas the other key contenders have some question stretching out, there's no reason why Dunkirk shouldn't have the the kick to make a real impression late. I am overlooking the massive class jump, but I think the distance will be the equalizer.

1st - Dunkirk
2nd - Theregoesjojo
3rd - Quality Road

Its also worth mentioning the Dubai World Cup day is Saturday. For those with TVG and nothing to do in the morning there is some high caliber action in the U.A.E.

I'll be rooting on Two Step Salsa, Russian Sage, Indian Blessing and Casino Drive.

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