Saturday, August 8, 2009

Saratoga Saturday (Day 10)

G1 Test

Its hard for me to lean either way between First Passage and Heart Ashley. First Passage has won her last three and is coming in off her career best effort and Heart Ashley had won three straight before a less than stellar performance in the Prioress.

Tough race and a tough one to pick with so many good options but perhaps foolishly I'll take Heart Ashley because she'll be overlooked at the windows after the last start.

G1 Whitney

This is a rather bland edition of what is typically one of the best older horse races of the year. With that said its got a great story as the old man Commentator (8yo) comes back again looking for his thrid win in this prestigious race.

Sadly I think its safe to say he has lost a step, the question is has he lost enough to go against comfortably over a track he has made his personal punching bag for years.

He'll be over bet relative to his current form and as a result I'll look in another direction. Smooth Air has had a bad case of seconditis this year but he has a ton of back class and his speed figures stand up to anyone in the field. He'll go off at a playable 4-5/1 and I think thats fair here and he's my pick.

Dry Martini is the horse that scares me. He is hot and has the figures to win off the last race, but I'm banking his true class will show here as he has not been on the level with this until his upset in in the Suburban.

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