Friday, October 23, 2009

Miscellaneous Musings

*** I've received some emails as to the infrequency of the blog in the last month. Frankly a lot is going on with work and my free time is at a minimum. I try to hold each post to some standard and I generally wait until I have the proper time to do something worthwhile.

With that said I've been picking at the Breeders Cup selections and analysis and the blog will go into overdrive the week of the event. I'm also planning on doing a live blog throughout the day.

Also, the second part of the Saratoga piece has not been shelved. Many thanks to the Paulick Report for highlighting the piece. I've gotten some great feedback and it is certainly appreciated. I had the follow up about 90% done before I went in a broader, more extensive direction. It now rivals War & Peace in length. I'm actually going to chop that into more parts, but I'm not planning on posting it until after the Breeders Cup so I can give it its proper due.

*** Rail Trip's defection from the Classic is a big blow for the Americans in our signature race. We are essentially left with Summer Bird and Einstein in my opinion. Summer Bird is boom or bust without any form over synthetics. Einstein is the type of horse that runs a game 2nd or 3rd here and only wins if the race falls apart. If you get the feeling that I don't seem optimistic about the Americans in this race, you're correct.

*** Gitano Hernando, the G1 Goodwood upsetter and The Rail Touts $38 hero is bypassing the Classic. Sad to hear, but you cant fault connections for doing what they think is right by the horse. I think he stood a great chance to get a piece of the Classic, despite the fact that the Classic would be the dreaded second start "off the plane".

*** Betting with your head is overrated. The Tout bypassed a recent wager on a good friends horse while at the track, only to watch it pay over $100. I try to bet with my head most of the time, but typically while at the track I'll throw a little money around on personal interests. Being Mr. Bigshot after making Keeneland my personal punching bag during my last day at the Spring meet, I went against the routine and decided to "bet with my head" all day. (Because I've got this game figured out now!) I promptly missed a $2,500 payday. Go figure how the rest of my day went... right into the lumberyard, Danny.

*** You have to give Claiborne some credit for being the first major Kentucky farm to release their 2010 stud fees. Most farms are in wait and see mode, scared to put themselves out there only to have to make later revisions. (Like Lanes End in '09) Nobody really knows where the market is and I suspect most don't want to accept just how bad it could be. Mares bred were down 10% last year, and I suspect we will see another 10-15% decline in 2010. (Which might not be a bad thing, but I'll save that for another day)

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