It was an interesting weekend of racing. Keeneland got into full swing and the last of the major Derby preps are over. Aside from the Coolmore next weekend at Keeneland, which will feature the ultra talented latecomer, Hull, most of the business is done and its time to start over analyzing the Run For The Roses.
Bluegrass Stakes
What a difference a good trip made for General Quarters. Here were my thoughts on the Tampa Bay Derby as posted a couple weeks back…
“He had a poor trip, being checked multiple times into the turn and blanketed to the wire by other horses. I was actually proud of his effort all things considered, as he was still trying with a sixteenth to go when he finally found room to run… I still think he has a shot of factoring in another prep”
Its not that surprising the General could beat this crowd handily. He had the most dominating effort in Stakes company of the bunch, whereas most of the field were question marks in class and ability. The tough colt has handled multiple surfaces and trips almost to perfection and should get enough out of this race to move forward in three weeks time.
Hold Me Back ran a useful race. The pace was non-existent; the fact that he made a rally and was able to circle all but the winner shows at least one thing, he has some class.
Arkansas Derby
Old Fashioned ran an ugly race and its unfortunate he was injured (and will likely be retired) in the process. After running rank chasing a brutal pace in the Rebel it was quite surprising to see this horse bolt to the lead and tick off a quarter in 22, and the half in 46. Going in the race looked to have little pace so it was not out of the question Old Fashioned would lead them around the track, but the rank manner in which he bolted for the lead and set the track on fire without the slightest hint of pressure was puzzling. Especially considering Larry Jones has shown a real knack for getting horses to relax in the past.
Papa Clem was expected to challenge for the pole position and after an awkward start found himself fluttering mid pack. It would be impressive to me that he could win the race with a less than ideal trip but when you consider he was the only horse that showed up and Old Fashioned was damage goods down the lane (both literally and figuratively) the race is somewhat slighted.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Kentucky Derby Top 10
1. I Want Revenge (1)
2. Fresian Fire (3)
3. Quality Road (6)
4. Dunkirk (8)
5. Pioneerof The Nile (4)
6. Old Fashioned (7)
7. Desert Party (9)
8. Musket Man (New)
9. Chocolate Candy (New)
10. Rachel Alexandra (10)
Dropped: The Pamplemousse and Imperial Council
First lets deal with the drops. The Pamplemousse was scratched and now is sidelined for 6 months with a tendon injury. Refer to the "Weekend Review" for my thoughts on the situation. Imperial Council threw in a clunker and I cant quite figure out what went wrong. If searching for a poor excuse, it could actually be that they opted to have him stalk the pace. The horse looks like he needs a target and I think when its all said and done with this horse he will be a closer. I understand why they wanted him closer after he was in a different area code in the Gotham, but perhaps having him press the pace went a bit overboard. With that said the pace was dull and class alone should have carried him farther. He fizzled when it mattered most and hopefully he will pan out later in the year. (Belmont Stakes)
Now onto the list. As you'll notice I did a lot of movement this week, more so than I've been inclined to do in weeks past. A good Derby list in my estimation is equal parts accomplishments and projection. Now that the preps are out of the way for most of the serious contenders the only way to rank them at this point is on their Derby chances alone and that is reflected in my list. For example Dunkirk didn't deserve to be ranked over more established horses a week or two ago, but now that the Run for the Roses is almost upon us, he looks a hell of a lot more live than horses who've won other preps.
I Want Revenge has done everything you'd want in a contender. He's run a race fast enough to win the Derby and he had an effort where he had to overcome a ton of adversity. We know he has the heart and ability and for that he is #1.
Fresian Fire moved up after Imperial Council's flop. He has been consistently dominant against useful fields and his pedigree screams 10 furlongs. Some dislike the 7 week layoff but those need to remember what Jones did with Hard Spun in the Derby off a 6 week layoff. (And that horse wasn't nearly as well regarded as Fresian)If there is a trainer to trust to get the job done, its Larry Jones.
Quality Road makes a massive jump to third. Some might wonder why he's made such a drastic jump now, and to put it simply, he's very fast. His Florida Derby was light years better than the Santa Anita Derby and Illinois Derby and he beat a contender in the process. I'm not in love with the horse, but to deny his chances in the race would be foolish at this point.
Dunkirk made a massive leap as well. The controversy here will be why he overtook Pioneerof The Nile. I'll address Pioneer later but Dunkirk is a horse that has to be well regarded if you like Quality Road at all. If you think Quality Road is the next great thing then by default you have to respect Dunkirk, who made a real go at Quality Road in only his first start in stakes company. The fact that he is bred to run all day long doesn't hurt either and is making some inclined to consider him a more logical Derby threat than his rival.
Its not very often a horse wins the Santa Anita Derby and falls down the rankings in the process. Pioneerof The Nile has for several reason. One, he's not that fast. He hasnt run a brilliant race this year. He would need to improve significantly to win the Derby and as history shows us, the Derby is generally won by a horse that doesn't have to improve but rather run back to a previous best. Secondly, he has no form over dirt. We have no idea whether dirt will move him up or back. Colonel John was impressive over the synthetics last year but that didn't work out to well for him in the Derby. Lastly, I don't like a horse that runs multiple races rank. The horse has not settled at all in his last few races. He refused to sit behind horses and he refused to idle off the pace in the Santa Anita Derby. The lack of pace might be the root of the problem but the horse is going to need to cooperate with the jockey if he has any shot in the Derby and he has looked awfully headstrong of late. Many of his backers have pointed to the fact that Pioneer defeated I Want Revenge twice as a 2yo, but that is to deny several important points. Horses can improve and regress as 3yo's and I Want Revenge might have actually been flattered by those races as it clearly was not his preferred surface.
Old Fashioned remains sixth as he is the only non top 5 horse left that can break into that group. He flopped in the Rebel but is every bit eligible to rebound in the Arkansas Derby this week. One loss does not define a horse and the Rebel will be a forgotten race if he impresses at Oaklawn.
Desert Party moved up two spots with the two drops this week. Frankly, there just aren't many other horses to consider.
Musket Man and Chocolate Candy both break into the list with solid efforts over the weekend. Musket Man is the model of consistency who just knows how to win and Chocolate Candy looks on the improve after flying somewhat under the radar.
Rachel Alexandra is tenth after another easy victory in the Fantasy over the weekend. If she was confirmed for the Derby she'd move up this list because rankly I don't think there are more than 6 or 7 colts that are better than her as of right now. She hasn't been in a dog fight or really challenged, but then again she is destroying inferior competition as a good horse should.
2. Fresian Fire (3)
3. Quality Road (6)
4. Dunkirk (8)
5. Pioneerof The Nile (4)
6. Old Fashioned (7)
7. Desert Party (9)
8. Musket Man (New)
9. Chocolate Candy (New)
10. Rachel Alexandra (10)
Dropped: The Pamplemousse and Imperial Council
First lets deal with the drops. The Pamplemousse was scratched and now is sidelined for 6 months with a tendon injury. Refer to the "Weekend Review" for my thoughts on the situation. Imperial Council threw in a clunker and I cant quite figure out what went wrong. If searching for a poor excuse, it could actually be that they opted to have him stalk the pace. The horse looks like he needs a target and I think when its all said and done with this horse he will be a closer. I understand why they wanted him closer after he was in a different area code in the Gotham, but perhaps having him press the pace went a bit overboard. With that said the pace was dull and class alone should have carried him farther. He fizzled when it mattered most and hopefully he will pan out later in the year. (Belmont Stakes)
Now onto the list. As you'll notice I did a lot of movement this week, more so than I've been inclined to do in weeks past. A good Derby list in my estimation is equal parts accomplishments and projection. Now that the preps are out of the way for most of the serious contenders the only way to rank them at this point is on their Derby chances alone and that is reflected in my list. For example Dunkirk didn't deserve to be ranked over more established horses a week or two ago, but now that the Run for the Roses is almost upon us, he looks a hell of a lot more live than horses who've won other preps.
I Want Revenge has done everything you'd want in a contender. He's run a race fast enough to win the Derby and he had an effort where he had to overcome a ton of adversity. We know he has the heart and ability and for that he is #1.
Fresian Fire moved up after Imperial Council's flop. He has been consistently dominant against useful fields and his pedigree screams 10 furlongs. Some dislike the 7 week layoff but those need to remember what Jones did with Hard Spun in the Derby off a 6 week layoff. (And that horse wasn't nearly as well regarded as Fresian)If there is a trainer to trust to get the job done, its Larry Jones.
Quality Road makes a massive jump to third. Some might wonder why he's made such a drastic jump now, and to put it simply, he's very fast. His Florida Derby was light years better than the Santa Anita Derby and Illinois Derby and he beat a contender in the process. I'm not in love with the horse, but to deny his chances in the race would be foolish at this point.
Dunkirk made a massive leap as well. The controversy here will be why he overtook Pioneerof The Nile. I'll address Pioneer later but Dunkirk is a horse that has to be well regarded if you like Quality Road at all. If you think Quality Road is the next great thing then by default you have to respect Dunkirk, who made a real go at Quality Road in only his first start in stakes company. The fact that he is bred to run all day long doesn't hurt either and is making some inclined to consider him a more logical Derby threat than his rival.
Its not very often a horse wins the Santa Anita Derby and falls down the rankings in the process. Pioneerof The Nile has for several reason. One, he's not that fast. He hasnt run a brilliant race this year. He would need to improve significantly to win the Derby and as history shows us, the Derby is generally won by a horse that doesn't have to improve but rather run back to a previous best. Secondly, he has no form over dirt. We have no idea whether dirt will move him up or back. Colonel John was impressive over the synthetics last year but that didn't work out to well for him in the Derby. Lastly, I don't like a horse that runs multiple races rank. The horse has not settled at all in his last few races. He refused to sit behind horses and he refused to idle off the pace in the Santa Anita Derby. The lack of pace might be the root of the problem but the horse is going to need to cooperate with the jockey if he has any shot in the Derby and he has looked awfully headstrong of late. Many of his backers have pointed to the fact that Pioneer defeated I Want Revenge twice as a 2yo, but that is to deny several important points. Horses can improve and regress as 3yo's and I Want Revenge might have actually been flattered by those races as it clearly was not his preferred surface.
Old Fashioned remains sixth as he is the only non top 5 horse left that can break into that group. He flopped in the Rebel but is every bit eligible to rebound in the Arkansas Derby this week. One loss does not define a horse and the Rebel will be a forgotten race if he impresses at Oaklawn.
Desert Party moved up two spots with the two drops this week. Frankly, there just aren't many other horses to consider.
Musket Man and Chocolate Candy both break into the list with solid efforts over the weekend. Musket Man is the model of consistency who just knows how to win and Chocolate Candy looks on the improve after flying somewhat under the radar.
Rachel Alexandra is tenth after another easy victory in the Fantasy over the weekend. If she was confirmed for the Derby she'd move up this list because rankly I don't think there are more than 6 or 7 colts that are better than her as of right now. She hasn't been in a dog fight or really challenged, but then again she is destroying inferior competition as a good horse should.
Monday, April 6, 2009
Weekend Review
G1 Wood Memorial
Ideally you want a Derby contender to be challenged and as a result show another dimension in his final prep. With that said I doubt any of the connections wanted I Want Revenge to miss the break and take a bewildered first step before deciding he needed to participate in the race.
To the astonishment of most watching, I Want Revenge rebounded from the abysmal start and rallied home after being covered and battered throughout the running in arguably the best performance of the season by a 3yo. It wasn’t an elegant performance like Quality Road’s Florida Derby, but I Want Revenge had to overcome virtually every possible hurdle you could imagine.
There are several talking points post race…
1.What was NBC doing by not showing the full race and instead opting to show the Illinois Derby? The Illinois Derby is typically one of the weaker Derby preps and typically doesn’t attract a “big” horse. Secondly, they showed the race on tape delay, meaning they clearly knew the talking point of the race was the poor start from I Want Revenge. The Wood Memorial should be televised live. NBC’s decision to opt for the Illinois is mind boggling, about as much as ESPN deciding to start their racing coverage on Lanes End day rather than the week prior where Fresian Fire, Rachel Alexandra, Old Fashioned all ran.
2. Jeff Mullin’s, trainer of I Want Revenge, ran into some trouble in the detention barn earlier on the card. Security notified the stewards they had seen Mullions administering an unknown substance to Gato Go Win prior to the G3 Bay Shore Stakes on the under card. The substance is believed to be Air Power, a cough medication that is permissible in virtually every racing jurisdiction in the country. The problem stems from the fact that Mullins broke standard protocol by carrying a foreign substance in the detention barn, whether he had the best of intentions or not. Most talk however has taken a much more aggressive tone, considering Mullins has been suspended and fined on multiple occasions in the past for “milkshaking” and a variety of other medical violations.
G1 Santa Anita Derby
The Santa Anita derby took a major hit with the scratch of The Pamplemousse early Saturday morning.
It has since come out that the colt has a lesion in one of his front tendons and is likely out of action for 6 months. The bizarre thing is the horse was on schedule to run until the track veterinarian caught the issue in their typical pre-race inspection. You have to question just what the trainer, groom and stable vet were doing if the track vet is catching injuries of this nature after the fact.
The ordeal doesn't pass the "sniff" test considering last week there was considerable debate on the backside about how poorly the horse was training. (Particularly his last workout)
The race went from intriguing and relevant to second page status with his defection. (That could be somewhat harsh) A small field with one standout is all too common in California on the main track.
Pinoneer of the Nile won in almost the exact style he did 4 weeks ago in the G2 San Felipe; rank early, mild move on the turn, winning on class by a length.
G1 Ashland
Congrats to Hooh Why for the win. I do not mean to sell her short but lets be realistic Stardom Bounds defeat is the story.
Many have claimed Stardom Bound has regressed since her stellar 2yo campaign. I don’t agree.
Has the division around her improved? Certainly. Did she lose because she is now damaged goods? Give me a break.
The filly is finding things much more difficult at three because her style has been exposed. It’s no secret that deep closers need two things to win races; a clean trip and a fast pace to run at. In all three of her races this year she has either had less than ideal trips or in the case of Saturday’s Ashland, she was running into a turtles pace.
Stardom Bound hasn’t forgotten how to run, it’s just that as her peers improve, her style becomes more vulnerable to factors outside of her own ability. She could overcome a wide trip and a tepid pace on pure class as a 2yo. As a 3yo, she is becoming mortal. She is facing the same hurdles every closer has to. So she ran third Saturday. She was closing into a 48 half at a track that has a short stretch run.
She’s 3-2-0-1 as a 3yo with two Grade 1 wins.
How the mighty have fallen…
Ideally you want a Derby contender to be challenged and as a result show another dimension in his final prep. With that said I doubt any of the connections wanted I Want Revenge to miss the break and take a bewildered first step before deciding he needed to participate in the race.
To the astonishment of most watching, I Want Revenge rebounded from the abysmal start and rallied home after being covered and battered throughout the running in arguably the best performance of the season by a 3yo. It wasn’t an elegant performance like Quality Road’s Florida Derby, but I Want Revenge had to overcome virtually every possible hurdle you could imagine.
There are several talking points post race…
1.What was NBC doing by not showing the full race and instead opting to show the Illinois Derby? The Illinois Derby is typically one of the weaker Derby preps and typically doesn’t attract a “big” horse. Secondly, they showed the race on tape delay, meaning they clearly knew the talking point of the race was the poor start from I Want Revenge. The Wood Memorial should be televised live. NBC’s decision to opt for the Illinois is mind boggling, about as much as ESPN deciding to start their racing coverage on Lanes End day rather than the week prior where Fresian Fire, Rachel Alexandra, Old Fashioned all ran.
2. Jeff Mullin’s, trainer of I Want Revenge, ran into some trouble in the detention barn earlier on the card. Security notified the stewards they had seen Mullions administering an unknown substance to Gato Go Win prior to the G3 Bay Shore Stakes on the under card. The substance is believed to be Air Power, a cough medication that is permissible in virtually every racing jurisdiction in the country. The problem stems from the fact that Mullins broke standard protocol by carrying a foreign substance in the detention barn, whether he had the best of intentions or not. Most talk however has taken a much more aggressive tone, considering Mullins has been suspended and fined on multiple occasions in the past for “milkshaking” and a variety of other medical violations.
G1 Santa Anita Derby
The Santa Anita derby took a major hit with the scratch of The Pamplemousse early Saturday morning.
It has since come out that the colt has a lesion in one of his front tendons and is likely out of action for 6 months. The bizarre thing is the horse was on schedule to run until the track veterinarian caught the issue in their typical pre-race inspection. You have to question just what the trainer, groom and stable vet were doing if the track vet is catching injuries of this nature after the fact.
The ordeal doesn't pass the "sniff" test considering last week there was considerable debate on the backside about how poorly the horse was training. (Particularly his last workout)
The race went from intriguing and relevant to second page status with his defection. (That could be somewhat harsh) A small field with one standout is all too common in California on the main track.
Pinoneer of the Nile won in almost the exact style he did 4 weeks ago in the G2 San Felipe; rank early, mild move on the turn, winning on class by a length.
G1 Ashland
Congrats to Hooh Why for the win. I do not mean to sell her short but lets be realistic Stardom Bounds defeat is the story.
Many have claimed Stardom Bound has regressed since her stellar 2yo campaign. I don’t agree.
Has the division around her improved? Certainly. Did she lose because she is now damaged goods? Give me a break.
The filly is finding things much more difficult at three because her style has been exposed. It’s no secret that deep closers need two things to win races; a clean trip and a fast pace to run at. In all three of her races this year she has either had less than ideal trips or in the case of Saturday’s Ashland, she was running into a turtles pace.
Stardom Bound hasn’t forgotten how to run, it’s just that as her peers improve, her style becomes more vulnerable to factors outside of her own ability. She could overcome a wide trip and a tepid pace on pure class as a 2yo. As a 3yo, she is becoming mortal. She is facing the same hurdles every closer has to. So she ran third Saturday. She was closing into a 48 half at a track that has a short stretch run.
She’s 3-2-0-1 as a 3yo with two Grade 1 wins.
How the mighty have fallen…
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Kentucky Derby Top 10
1. I Want Revenge (1)
2. Imperial Council (2)
3. Fresian Fire (3)
4. Pioneerof The Nile (4)
5. The Pamplemousse (5)
6. Quality Road (10)
7. Old Fashioned (6)
8. Dunkirk (8)
9. Desert Party (7)
10. Rachel Alexandra (New)
Quality Road is the big mover after his dominant win in the Florida Derby. Many have the horse topping their lists, and im not in a position to dispute that opinion since I gave the horse virtually no shot to win the Florida Derby. I placed him 6 knowing that after this weekend, which see's 4 of my top 10 run, that at least two of them will fall to some degree. (In all likelihood) I like to give those ranked a chance to respond before making room for a new horse at their expense. Those ranked above him are on notice as Quality Road has now set the bar.
Theregoesjojo is dropped off the list. My fear was confirmed as he is simply a miler with a closing kick.
Desert Party fell two spots after losing to his less heralded stablemate in the UAE Derby. To be fair, front runners won about everything at Nad Al Sheba over the weekend, but it was not the type of electric race that you could still be impressed by a runner up finish. With that said, I cant think of many more logical horses to rank above him. He is a good colt, and should factor in major races stateside this year. He'd be a long shot to win, but not a bomb.
Rachel Alexandra makes her way onto the list. I avoided putting her on the list for weeks because its somewhat unfair to rank a horse that's not being pointed to the Derby. I elected to include her now for a couple reasons. One, the connections have left the door open just slightly for a run in the Derby. Secondly, I don't think there are horses any more logical than her that are not ranked. You could make a slight case for Big Drama, but she is less likely to run in the Derby than Rachel.
2. Imperial Council (2)
3. Fresian Fire (3)
4. Pioneerof The Nile (4)
5. The Pamplemousse (5)
6. Quality Road (10)
7. Old Fashioned (6)
8. Dunkirk (8)
9. Desert Party (7)
10. Rachel Alexandra (New)
Quality Road is the big mover after his dominant win in the Florida Derby. Many have the horse topping their lists, and im not in a position to dispute that opinion since I gave the horse virtually no shot to win the Florida Derby. I placed him 6 knowing that after this weekend, which see's 4 of my top 10 run, that at least two of them will fall to some degree. (In all likelihood) I like to give those ranked a chance to respond before making room for a new horse at their expense. Those ranked above him are on notice as Quality Road has now set the bar.
Theregoesjojo is dropped off the list. My fear was confirmed as he is simply a miler with a closing kick.
Desert Party fell two spots after losing to his less heralded stablemate in the UAE Derby. To be fair, front runners won about everything at Nad Al Sheba over the weekend, but it was not the type of electric race that you could still be impressed by a runner up finish. With that said, I cant think of many more logical horses to rank above him. He is a good colt, and should factor in major races stateside this year. He'd be a long shot to win, but not a bomb.
Rachel Alexandra makes her way onto the list. I avoided putting her on the list for weeks because its somewhat unfair to rank a horse that's not being pointed to the Derby. I elected to include her now for a couple reasons. One, the connections have left the door open just slightly for a run in the Derby. Secondly, I don't think there are horses any more logical than her that are not ranked. You could make a slight case for Big Drama, but she is less likely to run in the Derby than Rachel.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Weekend Review, Crow Eating Edition
Florida Derby
Every year there is a horse or a race you horribly peg and this weekend revealed the most drastic flaw in my Derby analysis to date. I thoroughly underestimated Quality Road and there is nothing I can do but sit down and eat my serving of humble pie like a man. Maybe...
Todd Pletcher has taken some criticism in fan circles for complaining about the Gulfstream track. I'm not a big fan of excuses but nothing Pletcher said on air was incorrect.
Saturday saw two track records broken and every race on the card won on or near the front end. All but one race was won by a horse either laying 1st or 2nd through a half mile. The lone horse that wasn't in either position sat 3rd! Saying that there was anything other than a front end bias is to deny the facts.
The question really comes down to did the bias give an unfair outcome. I'm not prepared to go that far. Dunkirk rallied with a sweeping move around the far turn to bypass the field and looked like a winner by daylight with an eighth to go. Quality Road had enough time to react and respond, and did so with power. While there might have been a bias, there is no doubt Dunkirk hung down the lane. Perhaps it was too much to expect him to sustain that bold move to the wire.
I think more than anything, if Pletcher has something to question its not his decision to run over the Gulfstream track but his decision to scratch his rabbit. If there is a front running bias, he only stood to help his chances by making the pace brutal, something that didnt unfold in the slightest on Saturday.
Dubai Day
Gulfstream wasn't the only track around the globe to have a front running bias on Saturday. The Dubai World Cup card was won by a slew front runners as well on both turf and dirt. I haven't seen that many races stolen on the front end since Keeneland switched to polytrack and ended the reign of the "Golden Rail". The fact that trainers didn't react mid-card is baffling. Especially since the dirt course has been notoriously known for favoring horses laying close to the lead. Horses that get the first run on track have historically fared well, despite the fact that it has one of the longest stretch runs in the world.
With that said I took a great deal of pleasure watching Aron Gryder win the World Cup and Two Step Salsa dominating the Godolphin mile. Gryder was due for a win after having his heartbreak over Well Armed's performance in the Dirt Mile aired on the Discovery Channel's, Jockeys. Two Step Salsa is starting to live up to the potential he flashed last year.
Every year there is a horse or a race you horribly peg and this weekend revealed the most drastic flaw in my Derby analysis to date. I thoroughly underestimated Quality Road and there is nothing I can do but sit down and eat my serving of humble pie like a man. Maybe...
Todd Pletcher has taken some criticism in fan circles for complaining about the Gulfstream track. I'm not a big fan of excuses but nothing Pletcher said on air was incorrect.
Saturday saw two track records broken and every race on the card won on or near the front end. All but one race was won by a horse either laying 1st or 2nd through a half mile. The lone horse that wasn't in either position sat 3rd! Saying that there was anything other than a front end bias is to deny the facts.
The question really comes down to did the bias give an unfair outcome. I'm not prepared to go that far. Dunkirk rallied with a sweeping move around the far turn to bypass the field and looked like a winner by daylight with an eighth to go. Quality Road had enough time to react and respond, and did so with power. While there might have been a bias, there is no doubt Dunkirk hung down the lane. Perhaps it was too much to expect him to sustain that bold move to the wire.
I think more than anything, if Pletcher has something to question its not his decision to run over the Gulfstream track but his decision to scratch his rabbit. If there is a front running bias, he only stood to help his chances by making the pace brutal, something that didnt unfold in the slightest on Saturday.
Dubai Day
Gulfstream wasn't the only track around the globe to have a front running bias on Saturday. The Dubai World Cup card was won by a slew front runners as well on both turf and dirt. I haven't seen that many races stolen on the front end since Keeneland switched to polytrack and ended the reign of the "Golden Rail". The fact that trainers didn't react mid-card is baffling. Especially since the dirt course has been notoriously known for favoring horses laying close to the lead. Horses that get the first run on track have historically fared well, despite the fact that it has one of the longest stretch runs in the world.
With that said I took a great deal of pleasure watching Aron Gryder win the World Cup and Two Step Salsa dominating the Godolphin mile. Gryder was due for a win after having his heartbreak over Well Armed's performance in the Dirt Mile aired on the Discovery Channel's, Jockeys. Two Step Salsa is starting to live up to the potential he flashed last year.
Friday, March 27, 2009
Florida Derby
As you'll notice I did not post a new Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week. I figured it would be a waste of bandwidth to re-post an identical list as nothing transpired over the previous weekend that would affect the list.
The winners of the Turfway Poly-Preps haven't done enough to warrant real consideration to this point.
The Florida Derby headlines this weekends action. The run for the roses really heats up now as these are the final races before the big dance. Not only do horses need to be improving in these races but a lot of drama surrounds qualifying in the first place.
Dunkrik, considered a wonder horse by many, will not even get into the Derby without a win. Talk about pressure. A good fast closing second and this horse is heading to the Belmont.
Quality Road probably gets in with at least a third place finish, but Theregoesjojo can afford no worse a finish than second and even that might not cut it.
Realistically when all is said and done only one, maybe two, of these horses will be in the Derby come May.
So who will it be? Ive basically dismissed Quality Road from the outset. Im prepared to eat my shoe on him but I don't see this horse winning the Kentucky Derby. Can he win the Florida Derby? Possibly. Will he? I doubt it. I suspect he'll be running on fumes late in the Florida Derby and will be all out to finish third.
Theregoesjojo is an interesting horse. He comes running late and is for the first time this year really primed for a peak effort. He'll make a move late to dust everyone but....
Dunkirk. I hate picking this horse on several levels. One, I dislike the choice because he is all the rage after an allowance win. I also despise his trainers tactic of entering a rabbit. (Will save that discussion for another day) What I do like about him here is simple, he is proven around two turns over this course. Whereas the other key contenders have some question stretching out, there's no reason why Dunkirk shouldn't have the the kick to make a real impression late. I am overlooking the massive class jump, but I think the distance will be the equalizer.
1st - Dunkirk
2nd - Theregoesjojo
3rd - Quality Road
Its also worth mentioning the Dubai World Cup day is Saturday. For those with TVG and nothing to do in the morning there is some high caliber action in the U.A.E.
I'll be rooting on Two Step Salsa, Russian Sage, Indian Blessing and Casino Drive.
The winners of the Turfway Poly-Preps haven't done enough to warrant real consideration to this point.
The Florida Derby headlines this weekends action. The run for the roses really heats up now as these are the final races before the big dance. Not only do horses need to be improving in these races but a lot of drama surrounds qualifying in the first place.
Dunkrik, considered a wonder horse by many, will not even get into the Derby without a win. Talk about pressure. A good fast closing second and this horse is heading to the Belmont.
Quality Road probably gets in with at least a third place finish, but Theregoesjojo can afford no worse a finish than second and even that might not cut it.
Realistically when all is said and done only one, maybe two, of these horses will be in the Derby come May.
So who will it be? Ive basically dismissed Quality Road from the outset. Im prepared to eat my shoe on him but I don't see this horse winning the Kentucky Derby. Can he win the Florida Derby? Possibly. Will he? I doubt it. I suspect he'll be running on fumes late in the Florida Derby and will be all out to finish third.
Theregoesjojo is an interesting horse. He comes running late and is for the first time this year really primed for a peak effort. He'll make a move late to dust everyone but....
Dunkirk. I hate picking this horse on several levels. One, I dislike the choice because he is all the rage after an allowance win. I also despise his trainers tactic of entering a rabbit. (Will save that discussion for another day) What I do like about him here is simple, he is proven around two turns over this course. Whereas the other key contenders have some question stretching out, there's no reason why Dunkirk shouldn't have the the kick to make a real impression late. I am overlooking the massive class jump, but I think the distance will be the equalizer.
1st - Dunkirk
2nd - Theregoesjojo
3rd - Quality Road
Its also worth mentioning the Dubai World Cup day is Saturday. For those with TVG and nothing to do in the morning there is some high caliber action in the U.A.E.
I'll be rooting on Two Step Salsa, Russian Sage, Indian Blessing and Casino Drive.
Monday, March 23, 2009
The Poly-Preps
Its nice to see ESPN is finally ready to cover some Triple Crown action, though one has to wonder why they picked this weekend instead of last.
Not a whole lot to recap, because at this point both winners over the weekend are not genuine Derby contenders yet.
G2 Lanes End
Hold Me Back won the Lanes End impressively for his '09 debut. In retrospect he was the best bred horse in the field and certainly the best bred for the distance. Like all synthetic preps, the winners have to be viewed with some skepticism.
Next stop the G1 Bluegrass, though they are considering the option of training up to the Derby.
Rushaway Stakes
Cliffy's Future made a nice move to take care of the field in the co-feature. Looks like the quirky Tampa Bay track makes the Sam Davis effort a toss. Interesting pattern of note here. The trainer used the Rushaway as a launching point for the G1 Bluegrass with Dominican two years ago. Also for the eternally optimistic, Cliffy's sire won the 2004 Bluegrass and was a multiple graded stakes winner at Churchill.
Not a whole lot to recap, because at this point both winners over the weekend are not genuine Derby contenders yet.
G2 Lanes End
Hold Me Back won the Lanes End impressively for his '09 debut. In retrospect he was the best bred horse in the field and certainly the best bred for the distance. Like all synthetic preps, the winners have to be viewed with some skepticism.
Next stop the G1 Bluegrass, though they are considering the option of training up to the Derby.
Rushaway Stakes
Cliffy's Future made a nice move to take care of the field in the co-feature. Looks like the quirky Tampa Bay track makes the Sam Davis effort a toss. Interesting pattern of note here. The trainer used the Rushaway as a launching point for the G1 Bluegrass with Dominican two years ago. Also for the eternally optimistic, Cliffy's sire won the 2004 Bluegrass and was a multiple graded stakes winner at Churchill.
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